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Penalty Awarded – Yes (2.65)
Curaçao will probably spend all 96 minutes inside their own box. Eventually
someone handles the ball or sticks out a leg and concedes a penalty.
Leroy Sané to score (1.83) looks
decent.
What else is worth taking? The odds board feels
inflated. Germany alone could easily win nine corners, so Over 8.5
corners is worth considering.
Shot hits the post or crossbar – Over 0.5
(2.10)
Maybe a headed goal – Yes, possibly
from a corner.
Netherlands – Japan (1-1 or 2-2)
Some mathematician calculated that the Netherlands will
win the World Cup. Does he actually watch football?
The Dutch failed to score against Algeria, nearly
dropped points to Uzbekistan, and without two penalties who knows what would
have happened. Then there was a draw against Ecuador while conceding again, and
a difficult 2-1 win over Norway where they also conceded.
Japan, meanwhile, have kept clean sheets in their last
five matches:
- 31.05.26 – Japan 1-0 Iceland
- 31.03.26 – England 0-1 Japan
- 28.03.26 – Scotland 0-1 Japan
- 18.11.25 – Japan 3-0 Bolivia
- 14.11.25 – Japan 2-0 Ghana
That's why I'm looking at Japan +1 handicap
(1.40).
Japan to score (1.45) — though the
odds are a bit low.
Cody Gakpo to score (3.55), especially
if the Dutch get a penalty.
Donyell Malen or Cody Gakpo to score – Over 0.5
(1.80).
Oddly enough, they're offering a Frenkie de
Jong assist at 9.6, even though he often creates chances. Although
recently he's mostly played safe passes sideways and backward.
I didn't see Justin Kluivert listed in the betting
markets, but he's dangerous and active in attack as well.
Overall, I expect both teams to score.
As usual: Netherlands double chance + Over 1.5
goals (1.65) for a 1-1 or 2-2 type of game.
- Japan Over 3 corners (1.55)
- Japan Over 3 shots on target (1.47)
- Japan Over 2.5 offsides (1.49)
- Netherlands Over 11.5 total shots (their average is around 16)
Ivory Coast – Ecuador (1-1)
A true three-way game. A draw, an Ivory Coast win, or
an Ecuador win all seem possible.
Ivory Coast are dangerous. They beat France while
scoring twice, beat Scotland 1-0, and crushed South Korea 4-0. The quality is
obvious. Most of their players compete for major European clubs.
Ecuador can mainly point to draws against the
Netherlands and Morocco.
If I'm betting the result, I'd lean toward the draw
angle. I like Ivory Coast double chance (1X) at 1.48.
I really don't like Ecuador. They're a very physical
and often reckless team. They shoot from all over the field, rely heavily on
physicality, force goals through, and then sit deep hoping for long balls and
counterattacks. That style only works against teams like Turkey.
I expect a very physical match.
Both teams Over 1.5 yellow cards (1.75)
looks interesting, and the match total could go over three cards as well.
In terms of discipline, Ivory Coast are generally more
controlled than the wild Ecuadorians. So Ecuador (0) handicap on yellow
cards is worth a look.
Ivory Coast Over 2.5 shots on target (1.45).
Neither team is shy about shooting from distance.
Sweden – Tunisia (1-0)
Another likely snoozefest.
Neither Sweden nor Tunisia have looked particularly
impressive lately. The only advantage Sweden has is greater experience and team
chemistry.
They lost to almost everyone over the past two years,
then suddenly beat Poland and now they're here.
Tunisia are basically a 0-0 or 1-0 team. Even when they
create chances, the finishing is poor.
Sweden to score before the 75th minute (1.49).
I'd love to see Viktor Gyökeres score (2.46).
I hope he becomes the tournament's top scorer, although Sweden's style of play
won't make that easy.
I think this game is very close to 0-0, and eventually
Sweden score a header and that's it — 1-0, game over.
Sweden to score in the second half (1.65).
I expect a 0-0 first half and a goal after the break.
Sweden double chance + Under 4 goals (1.47).
Tunisia Over 1.5 yellow cards (1.57). Their projected foul
count is around 13.5, so a couple of rough challenges or tactical fouls on
Gyökeres should be enough to get there. | 
Bookmakers
